“𝗖𝗔𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗡𝗚𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗗𝗘𝗙𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗜𝗡 𝗗𝗘𝗟𝗧𝗔 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗣𝗗𝗣 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗣? 𝐖𝐡𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 “𝐌𝐑.𝐅𝐈𝐗 𝐈𝐓” 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐃𝐏 𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐭𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞?”

𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐞: 3𝐫𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐞𝐛𝐫𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲, 2025

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The political landscape of Delta State is currently experiencing a significant shift, marked by the ongoing wave of defections from the 𝐏𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐲 (𝐏𝐃𝐏) to the 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 (𝐀𝐏𝐂). This trend raises serious concerns about the future of the 𝐏𝐃𝐏 in the state, as key figures and political heavyweights appear to be aligning with the ruling party at the center. The question on everyone’s lips is: Can the exodus be stopped, or will Delta State eventually fall under the APC stronghold?

𝐀 𝐆𝐨𝐝𝐟𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫’𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞:

This month February 2025 is expected to bring a defining moment for Delta politics. The 𝐏𝐃𝐏’𝐬 long-standing political godfather 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐉𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐞 𝐈𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐢 in the state is set to receive a presidential pardon from 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐁𝐨𝐥𝐚 𝐀𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐓𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐛𝐮.

This move, while seemingly benevolent, has deep political implications. The 𝐀𝐏𝐂, known for its strategic political maneuvering, could leverage this pardon as a tool to further weaken the 𝐏𝐃𝐏, luring loyalists and foot soldiers of the godfather into its fold because 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐉𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐞 𝐈𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐢 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 “𝐆𝐄𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐋𝐎𝐕𝐄” 𝐒𝐏𝐄𝐋𝐋 𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐌 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐢𝐟𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐆𝐨𝐝.

Additionally, 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐄𝐤𝐩𝐞𝐦𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐨 (𝐓𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐨), the influential former militant leader and owner of 𝐓𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐚 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬, has been a key player in Niger Delta politics. His lucrative surveillance contract worth billions of naira awarded by both the 𝐁𝐮𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐢 and 𝐓𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐛𝐮 administrations, keeps him tied to the federal government. However, there are speculations that his continued financial and political relevance is conditional on aligning with the 𝐀𝐏𝐂. Should he resist, the contract might be balkanized by forces within the ruling party, led by one of Nigeria’s most intelligent political strategists who has never lost a socio-political battle in decades, we are talking of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐏𝐂𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭: 𝐄𝐉𝐄𝐋𝐄, 𝐄𝐁𝐎𝐈𝐆𝐁𝐄, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐫:

The defection of 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐞𝐝 𝐍𝐰𝐨𝐤𝐨 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐏𝐂 on January 30, 2025, proved that the prediction made by 𝐖𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐨𝐱 on the 1st of January 2025 this year—that Delta could become a one-party Senatorial State—was not mere speculation. Now, there are rumours that the APC has set its sights on 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐃𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧 (𝐄𝐣𝐞𝐥𝐞), 𝐄𝐛𝐨𝐢𝐠𝐛𝐞 (former Director of Protocol to the immediate past Governor), former PDP LGA chairmen, and other PDP stalwarts who have held sway since 1998 till date.

These individuals are not mere foot soldiers; they are kingmakers, political tacticians, and grassroots mobilizers. If they leave, the 𝐏𝐃𝐏 will face an existential crisis in the state. The question then becomes: Who will emerge as the “𝐌𝐑. 𝐅𝐈𝐗 𝐈𝐓” for the PDP in Delta State? Who has the magic wand to halt the planned exodus by December 2025?

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭: 𝐀𝐏𝐂’𝐬 2015 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐏𝐃𝐏 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

History has a way of repeating itself, and the current situation in Delta State bears striking similarities to the events that led to the PDP’s loss of the presidency in 2015. The New PDP (nPDP) movement, spearheaded by disgruntled PDP Governors and key stakeholders like Rotimi Amaechi, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and others, was initially downplayed by then-President Goodluck Jonathan. The PDP leadership assumed the defections would have minimal impact. However, the nPDP’s defection to the APC led to a political tsunami, culminating in Jonathan’s defeat and Muhammadu Buhari’s landslide victory in 2015.

Could the same fate befall the Delta State PDP? The signs are eerily similar: internal party friction, key defections, and an underestimation of the ruling party’s strategic maneuvers. If history is a guide, the PDP must act swiftly and decisively if it wishes to avoid a total collapse in Delta State.

𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞:

Similar scenarios have played out in other political climes. In South Africa, the 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 (𝐀𝐍𝐂) has faced significant challenges due to internal divisions and corruption scandals, leading to a decline in electoral dominance. In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party suffered massive losses in the 2019 elections due to internal disagreements and an inability to address grassroots concerns, paving the way for Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party to secure a landslide victory.

𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐭𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐏𝐃𝐏 must take heed from these examples. Political dominance is not permanent, and internal weakness often precedes external defeat. If the party fails to address its internal conflicts and the strategic harvesting of its key players, it may find itself relegated to the opposition bench for the first time in its history.

𝐀 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐧 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐢𝐧𝐞: 𝐏𝐃𝐏’𝐬 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐯𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧:

The writing is on the wall. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the 𝐏𝐃𝐏 can withstand the 𝐀𝐏𝐂’𝐬 calculated offensive or succumb to the looming APC party dominance in Delta State. The party must urgently address the cracks within its ranks, re-strategize, and reclaim the confidence of its members.

As a socio-political Activist in Delta State, our duty is to speak truth to power and ensure that all stakeholders recognize the gravity of the situation. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐃𝐏’𝐬 survival in Delta is not just about party loyalty but about maintaining a balanced democratic structure where political choices remain viable for the electorate.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐃𝐏 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 ,𝐨𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐃𝐄𝐋𝐓𝐀 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐏𝐂 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠? 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥.